現在以一個例子說明,大家熟悉的Facebook。
2018.3
http://technews.tw/2018/03/21/how-trump-consultants-exploited-the-facebook-data-of-millions/
Facebook因涉嫌洩漏5000萬美國個人資料於第三方,從而令到股價大跌接近18%。
那時的投資者都說Facebook從此走向識微,不會再有人再敢用,誇張者指會引發刪除賬號。這算是第一層思考,人云亦云,令到很多投資者立即沽貨止蝕。我們停一停,進行第二層思考,這次事件會影響到Facebook基本面?無可否認,影響一定有,人們會覺得很不安全,不會再加入更多資料入faceboook,刪除facebook,或不再使用。不過,有多少人付諸行動?
沒有了Facebook,你可能在那看朋友近況?在那看資訊/新聞?在那跟隨喜愛的明星/球星動態?所以,結論很明顯,在中短時期,facebook還是未能代替,還會繼續賺錢。
所以,筆者以156入小量facebook,為的就是證明上述理論。
最高升到218新高,賬面賺約39%。
但前陣子又因第二季業績差過預期,暴跌至169。
那會是個危機還是機會?筆者也很想知,所以身體力行,在某個位數入了貨。
A sudden critical indecent may cause a big sell from common investor like us. However, we may
treat it as a chance instead of crisis, as an investor of value investing.
Let's take an famous example, Facebook.
2018.3
http://technews.tw/2018/03/21/how-trump-consultants-exploited-the-facebook-data-of-millions/
A big drop of Facebook share price is losing 18% of its total market capital due to the personal information leak of 50 millions in USA.
For the first-level thinking, most of investors think that Facebook will be fallen due to the crisis. People may be quitting it, deleting accounts. Let's stop here for a second. Let's get into second-level thinking. Indeed, there is a certain impact from the incident. User will share less personal information on Facebook,clean all personal photos/posts, deleting account. However, how many of you will take them in action so far? Could we find another platform for reading news/information, visit friends' status and look after celebrities' status? So it is very obvious for the conclusion. In a short-middle period, Facebook still can earn $ from me and you.
Therefore, the writer of this blog had placed an small order in price 156 in order to prove the theory.
The highest price in 2018(so far) is 218, meaning 39% increment of my investment on book value.
After the second-quarter result, the share price dropped to the lowest 169.
So, will it be a chance or crisis? To take action, i had placed an small order again.